PRAS: Probabilistic Resource Adequacy Suite

Abstract

NREL's Probabilistic Resource Adequacy Suite (PRAS) provides an open-source, research-oriented collection of tools for analyzing the resource adequacy of bulk power systems.

Resource adequacy describes a power system's ability to meet demand for electricity. PRAS simulates power system operations under a range of operating conditions to study the risk of failing to meet demand—due to a lack of electricity supply or deliverability— and identify the time periods and regions in which that risk occurs.

PRAS performs low-fidelity, high-speed simulations of multi-region power system operations, considering hundreds of thousands of years of unplanned resource outages to quantify the risk and potential nature of energy supply shortfalls in probabilistic terms. PRAS can be used to calculate the capacity credit of variable and energy-limited resources such as wind, solar, and storage and may be complemented with higher-fidelity, deterministic production cost modeling for more detailed operational insights. The PRAS ecosystem includes integrations with other NREL tools, including the Regional Energy Deployment System, the Resource Planning Model, and the Scalable Integrated Infrastructure Planning model.